UAB vs Marshall 10/29/2011

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AccuScore is forecasting a close game with UAB winning 41% of simulations, and Marshall 59% of simulations. In close games, turnover margin is especially important. UAB commits fewer turnovers in 34% of simulations and they go on to win 54% when they take care of the ball. Marshall wins 71% of the simulations in which they commit fewer turnovers. Pat Shed is averaging 65 rushing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average rushing yards and at least a 1 rushing TD (24% chance) then he helps his team win 53%. A.J. Graham is averaging 277 passing yards per sim. If he can have a great game with better than average passing yards and at least a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio (32% chance) then he helps his team win 73%. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is MAR -7

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